Aden,
with a population of close to one million, is a strategically located seaport
of Yemen. Located at the shores of Red Sea, its strategic importance is further
enhanced by the fact that its a gateway to, approximately 170 Km away, Bab el
Mandeb. Bab e el Mandeb is a strategically important strait located between
Yemen on one side and Djibiouti, Eriteria and Somalia to the other. Most importantly, maritime
trafficking travelling from Egypt, especially from Suez Canal to further
towards Indian Ocean has to pass through this important strategic strait.
Saudi regime and the coalition justified attack on the Yemeni Houthis either with claims of protecting legitimate government of Yemen or with intent to save Saudia Arabia from perceived imminent invasion by, as they claim from Iranian proxies, the Houthis. However, if we analyze the events more closely, and especially, those which took place immediately before the Saudi attack, other possible insights to possible motivation behind the attack also unfolds.
Saudi regime and the coalition justified attack on the Yemeni Houthis either with claims of protecting legitimate government of Yemen or with intent to save Saudia Arabia from perceived imminent invasion by, as they claim from Iranian proxies, the Houthis. However, if we analyze the events more closely, and especially, those which took place immediately before the Saudi attack, other possible insights to possible motivation behind the attack also unfolds.
Houthis who hail from Northern Yemen, which borders Saudi Arabia, captured Saana, the Yemeni capital, in September last year. Ever since, they have been making larger territorial gains, capturing almost 10 of Yemen 21 provinces. The battles between joint forces of Houthis and forces loyal to ex president Ali Abdullah Saleh and forces loyal to President Mansour eventually forced the latter to fled to Aden. On 22nd of March, an event of significant importance took place. Houthis made a fateful advance to the city of Taiz which is the last major center on way to Aden. By 25th of March, they occupied a key airbase located 67 Km outside Aden and eventually captured the International Airport based in the city.
The
immediate precipitant of war does not seem to be any imminent attack of Houthis
on Saudia Arabia. Rather, Houthis have been advancing towards Southern Yemen,
opposite to the Yemen-Saudi borders. It seems as if what motivated Saudi led
coalition to attack Yemen is to thwart the possibility for Houthis to take over
the strategic seaport. This would have given the Houthis an opportunity to
further advance to Bab el Mandeb and gain influence on an important maritime
route. In the calculus of Saudia Arabia and the West, especially the US, its
the Iranians, who they accuse of supporting Houthis, would have eventually got an
influence on Bab el Mandeb strait, had the Houthis advance not been stopped. As
the following table (take from US Energy Information Center) approximately 3.8
million US barrel oil passes through Bab el Mandab every day and if figures for
Suez Canal are taken into account as well, the estimated supply increases to approximately
8.5 million barrel a day. Losing influence on such massive oil supply would
mean disastrous for the Gulf States, who depend on petro dollars and their
Western allies, whose economies need constant flow of oil. Gulf States such as
Qatar, Kuwait who are located in proximity to Strait of Hormuz, and which is
connected to Bab el Mandeb through Gulf of Aden, and such States as Egyt and
Sudan, located at the shores of Red Sea, where Bal el Mandab is actually located,
serves to lose from the Houthi capturing of the Strait. It this is factor which
motivates this grand alliance who struck the moment they felt the Houthis are
crossing the red line.
Table 1.
Volume of crude oil and petroleum products transported through world
chokepoints, 2009-13
Location
2009
2010
2011
2012 2013
Strait
of
Hormuz
15.7
15.9
17.0
16.9 17.0
Strait
of
Malacca
13.5
14.5
14.6
15.1 15.2
Suez
Canal and SUMED Pipeline 3.0
3.1
3.8 4.5
4.6
Bab el-Mandab 2.9
2.7 3.4
3.7 3.8
Danish
Straits 3.0
3.2
3.3 3.1
3.3
Turkish
Straits 2.8
2.8
3.0 2.9
2.9
Panama
Canal 0.8
0.7
0.8 0.8
0.8
World
maritime oil trade 53.9
55.5
55.6 56.7
56.5
World
total oil supply
84.9
87.5
87.8 89.7
90.1
Notes:
All estimates are in million barrels per day. Data for Panama Canal is by
fiscal years.
Sources:
U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Lloyd's List
Intelligence, Panama Canal Authority, Eastern Bloc Research, Suez Canal
Authority, and UNCTAD, using EIA conversion factors.
US has
refrained from direct military participation because of its ongoing involvement
with Iran over negotiation on nuclear program in Laussane, Switzerland. While
ensuring its strategic interests are saved, whose responsibility can be
relegated to partners, such as Gulf States in the region, it is willing to
retain the possibility of nuclear deal as negotiation enters final stage in the
coming days. It is also to noted that while Saudia Arabia and other Gulf States
are totally allied to US interests, yet they are wary of possibility of US
Iranian deal. The attack on Yemen also gives them the opportunity to incite a
backlash from Iran, for example in terms of backing off from the deal. Will
that happen depends about the odds Iranian faces and how directly US involves
itself in the conflict.
However,
what is far from truth is the fact that Saudia Arabia is under attack. A grand
strategic war is underway for power, hegemony and resources which must be sold
to population in vocabulary they are more receptive towards, and that is what
this whole propaganda of attack on holy Saudia Arabia is about.